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Your search for Risk Assessment found 38 results.

Drone Strikes in Pakistan Reasons to Assess Civilian Casualties

/reports/2014/drone-strikes-in-pakistan-reasons-to-assess-civilian-casualties

CNA analyzed publically available data to determine the likelihood of civilian harm per strike in the drone campaign in Pakistan. From this data, we see that the U.S. has improved its ability to reduce civilian casualties during drone strikes in Pakistan over the past several years, as measured in the percentage of strikes causing civilian casualties and the number of civilian casualties occurring per incident.

casualties than engagements from manned plat­forms. In that case, failure to recognize and mitigate factors besides the platform in the targeting process resulted in an increased risk to civilians from ... of this paper. (A forthcoming paper will provide both additional analysis and a model of an overall assessment process.) Civilian casualties are one consideration in the debate concerning which department ... , it is both possible and worthwhile for the U.S. to conduct an independent assessment of civilian casualties resulting from drone strikes in Pakistan and elsewhere. This assessment could be provided

Analytic Framework for Emulating Russian Decision Making

/reports/2017/analytic-framework-for-emulating-russian-decision-making

The purpose of this report is to propose an analytical framework for emulating Russian decision-making in the national security realm. The framework is paired with a methodology that allows the user to systematically examine what Russian decision- making would look like in response to a foreign policy crisis. The framework is presented in the first section and then applied to three potential crisis scenarios in Eastern Europe. The analytical structure presented is meant to be used as a guideline. It offers potential answers, tools, and a systematic method for emulation that allows users to formulate decision-trees for Russian actions on the basis of reasonable assumptions about how Russia might act in various situations. The final product can be further developed and refined on the basis of observation of Russian actions in future interactions with its adversaries and behavior in crisis situations.

several sources: what we know about Russian decision-making, what we know about how rational leaders calculate risk, the behavior of states in the international system, and distinct elements of Russian ... a complex adversary. Key elements of the framework The model begins with a strategic assessment by Russian leadership of the situation and how it fits into the grander scheme of their security concerns, ambitions, strategy for the region, and geopolitical confrontation with the United States. The strategic assessment serves as an intellectual template or base for Russian decision- making

ai and autonomy in russia: Issue 45, September 7, 2022

/our-media/newsletters/ai-and-autonomy-in-russia/issue-45

trials of neural networks. According to the developed GOST system, specialists will receive an accurate assessment of whether the product meets the declared characteristics of accuracy and efficiency ... processes to identify risk events.” ACAT system users can contribute to the investigation of internal and external threats. The system performs intellectual analysis of unstructured texts (mail, e-mail, arbitration documents, etc.) to compile a profile of objects (individuals and legal entities) and document the risk events that have occurred for each of them. Thanks to the introduction

AI and Autonomous Technologies in the War in Ukraine

/reports/2023/10/ai-and-autonomous-technologies-in-the-war-in-ukraine

A survey of artificial intelligence in the war in Ukraine finds AI use has had a limited effect on escalation, but this may change with extensive use of AI.

of the breakthroughs in generative AI systems to create an impression that the technology is ubiquitous. A careful assessment of the topic, however, must acknowledge that AI is a relatively new ... accelerating investment into research and development of AI and autonomous technologies. Progress in these fields promises to reduce risk to deployed forces, minimize the cognitive and physical burden ... technology use in the war in Ukraine. The following section considers how the use of AI and autonomous technologies in the war may have affected the risk of escalation from conventional war to the use

ai and autonomy in russia: Special Issue, September 8, 2022

/our-media/newsletters/ai-and-autonomy-in-russia/special-issue

September 8, 2022 issue features translations of several Russian military journal articles that reflect on the use of AI and autonomy. All have been written since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

: omnidirectionality (comprehensive assessment and combined use of all related factors); synchronicity (simultaneous actions in different areas); limited goals (compliance of goals with opportunities ... are capable of causing harm, despite the most complete human control over them. As a general rule, the higher the risk for violation of human rights or causing harm, the more stringent the legal regulation ... determines only the desirable parameters of the objects produced. Within the framework of this publication, of course, it is impossible to give a qualitative legal assessment of all aspects of using AI

ai and autonomy in russia: Issue 39, May 30, 2022

/our-media/newsletters/ai-and-autonomy-in-russia/issue-39

and development of information systems of enterprises and how they might respond. Responding to foreign sanctions as an element of risk management: an integrated approach to risk assessment, priorities

JTF CS Tasking and Roles and Responsibilities for CBRN and DSCA

/reports/2023/07/jtf-cs-tasking-and-roles-and-responsibilities-for-cbrn-and-dsca

Military support to homeland hazards like hurricanes is now assigned to Joint Task Force Civil Support. CNA analyzed organizational structures for the mission.

with the new MFT to optimize staff structure and efficiencies. We conclude with an overall assessment of the HEC and how the command can successfully achieve the transition to DSCA all hazards, while ... curtails or suspends work on a variety of more “administrative” tasks, which then accrete over time and increase risk to other aspects of JTF‐CS’ mission. According to Delphi respondents, correcting ... substantial stress during prolonged  and/or coincidental response operations and introduce undetermined risk to JTF-CS’ overall mission set as they struggle to complete their tasking. Change options

Center for Public Health Preparedness and Resilience

/centers-and-divisions/ipr/phpr

Helps HHS and other public health agencies and organizations develop and test emergency policies, plans, and operational capabilities.

and outreach.  Pulse: Wastewater Surveillance https://vimeo.com/521552795 none orange half Pulse: Wastewater Surveillance Risk Assessment We help public health agencies and health care organizations

Potential Environmental Impact from Fracking in the Delaware River Basin

/reports/2015/potential-environmental-impact-from-fracking-in-the-delaware-river-basin

This study aims to model the landscape of the Marcellus Shale region to predict how it may change in the future in response to the expansion of natural gas extraction, and, in particular, what impact this may have on the Delaware River Basin (DRB). Our approach combined geospatial analysis and statistical modeling to create a probability surface that predicts the most favorable locations for the placement of future wells based on the location of existing wells. Using the probability surface and an estimate of the number of wells that would be needed to fully exploit the shale resource, we estimated the future landscape of development in the Interior Marcellus Shale and DRB. Using affected subwatersheds and counties as study areas, we then investigated potential impacts associated with land cover, water and wastewater management, water quality due to changes in land cover, air emissions, and health risk factors. The results are intended to help decision-makers and the public

quality due to changes in land cover, air emissions, and health risk factors. The results are intended to help decision-makers and the public Hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” combined ... of wells. Few studies have considered multiple impacts, and no study has provided a reasonably complete, integrated regional environmental assessment of fracking. We aim to help fill this knowledge gap ... then investigated the potential impacts of this development on land cover, water and wastewater management, water quality, air emissions, and health risk factors in three DRB sub-watersheds. Our calculations were

Why the Emergency Management Community Should be Concerned about Climate Change

/reports/2010/why-the-emergency-management-community-should-be-concerned-about-climate-change

This report is one of several reports from CNA examining the impact of climate change on U.S. policy. This particular report focuses on the impact of climate change on comprehensive emergency management and preparedness policy. It seeks to outline key climate change issues for consideration from an emergency management perspective and begin a conversation on potential implications for the near-, medium-, and long-terms. It lays the foundation for future dialogue among emergency management practitioners from all levels of government to explore policy solutions in greater depth. The scientific foundation for much of the discussion in this report comes from the recently published report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program— Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States.

of natural hazards such as tropical cyclones, wildfires, floods, and winter storms. Thus, the historical data that are typically the basis of hazard identification and risk assessment may not accurately